Sep 13 2009
Atlanta Braves 2009-10 Off-Season Plan
Originally Posted on Braves-Nation.com. 9/7/09
It’s getting late in the year and the Braves have started to fall off pace in the NL Wild Card race, so that only leaves one thing to do… Take a look at next year’s roster. This is a rundown of what I would do if I were calling the shots and will be what I preach from throughout the off-season when it comes to filling out the 2010 roster. The Braves have some decisions to make in regards to next season with some guys leaving via free agency, some that are arbitration eligible that a decision may need to be made on and one important option that needs to be acted upon.
FREE AGENTS
Adam LaRoche, 1B; Garret Anderson, LF; Greg Norton, PH; Mike Gonzalez, RP; Rafael Soriano, RP
ARBITRATION ELIGIBLE
Kelly Johnson (2nd of 3), 2B; Ryan Church (3rd of 4), OF; Matt Diaz (3rd of 4), OF; Peter Moylan (1st of 3), RP; Buddy Carlyle (1st of 3), RP
OPTIONS
Tim Hudson ($12 million, $1 million buyout), SP
DEVELOPING A PLAN
Watching the Braves play down the stretch, I’ve learned a couple of things:
- Tim Hudson is worth every bit of his option.
- None of our current options at second base are starters in this league.
Where those observations leave us:
- With Hudson in the rotation, we’ll have six starting pitchers.
- We need to go look on the outside for help at second base.
I know a lot of talk is that the Braves need to find a big bat to play in LF and bat in the middle of the order, but I take a different stance on that. My thought process is that we at least have players with competent ability to play in the outfield, while we have nothing that has starter ability at second base and there is no one close in the farm system around the infield, either. At first base, we at least have an up and coming prospect, but he’s not in the picture for 2010. Knowing that, I look for outside help at first base and second base, leaving it up to what we already have to patrol the outfield. With the six starting pitchers, I know Javy Vazquez is a free agent at the end of the 2010 season and would bring a lot back in return, so he’s my odd man out.
FIRST BASE:
Adam LaRoche has been great for us in the second half, but anyone with half a brain or that has been watching the Braves for more than two seasons knew he would be. What would worry me in bringing him back is that he won’t give us that for an entire season. He is a notorious second half hitter and it just so happens that his second stint in Atlanta will only call for one second half surge.
I’d look outside the organization at first base, looking at a guy like Conor Jackson, who may be non-tendered by the Diamondbacks. The Braves were trying to pry Jackson loose from the Diamondbacks last year at the deadline and settled on Kotchman from the Angels. There are a lot of talks floating around that Jackson may be non-tendered, and if he is, I would hope the Braves would swoop in and pick up the .800+ OPS bat for next to nothing. Jackson’s 2009 season has been derailed by sickness, and would undoubtedly be a risk, but with Freddie Freeman likely starting at Triple-A next year, we may be able to afford to take that risk on.
Primary Option: Pick up Conor Jackson if non-tendered by Diamondbacks
Secondary Options: Mark DeRosa (free agent), Russ Branyan (free agent), Adam LaRoche (free agent), Garrett Atkins (trade, possible non-tender)
SECOND BASE:
My primary option for second base would be revisiting the trade scenario that came up with the Brewers at the trade deadline. They had some interest in Javy Vazquez and will still need pitching next year. My idea would be to center a trade around Javy Vazquez for Rickie Weeks. Weeks would provide a combination of power and speed, along with an on-base threat to the lineup. Imagine having two 20-20 threats with .350 OBPs leading off the game?
Of course, in that trade we’d be fools to not get more than Weeks in return, so I look to Brett Lawrie in their minor league system. Lawrie, one of their top prospects, was drafted as a C/3B but has been playing 2B with the Brewers in the minors. He’s young (19), but has already had a taste of Double-A and his bat can play at any position. Lawrie would give us a much needed bat in the system on the infield and a possible replacement for Chipper Jones after he hangs them up.
Primary Option: Trade: Javy Vazquez to Brewers for Rickie Weeks and Brett Lawrie
Secondary Options: Orlando Hudson (free agent), Freddy Sanchez (free agent), Miguel Tejada (free agent), Dan Uggla (trade)
RELIEF PITCHING:
Obviously we’re going to need to fill two major holes at the back of the bullpen, but the good news is that if we were able to keep these guys, we’d probably have to look at replacing them in May, anyway. Relief pitching is the toughest market to gauge going into the off-season, but I would try to attack filling those holes through trade and not via free agency.
Some candidates to trade:
- Kelly Johnson – Likely trade or non-tender candidate
- Martin Prado – Sell high off this season, replaceable on bench
- David Ross – Not the best plan, but some team may view him as a starter and Sammons would be a good backup catcher.
- Matt Diaz – Is he good enough to get the money this type of season may warrant in arbitration court? Another sell high candidate?
- Ryan Church – Same as above.
BENCH:
Knowing we could use some more power off the bench, and may be trading some players off the bench, I would keep tabs on these players through free agency: Eric Hinske, Xavier Nady, Randy Winn
WHAT DO WE HAVE WHERE?
With all this done, now we need to see where the Braves are in terms of personnel.
STARTING LINEUP:
C – Brian McCann, 1B – Conor Jackson, 2B – Rickie Weeks, 3B – Chipper Jones, SS – Yunel Escobar, LF – Ryan Church/Matt Diaz, CF – Nate McLouth, RF – Jason Heyward
BENCH:
David Ross, Brooks Conrad, Omar Infante, Martin Prado, Ryan Church/Matt Diaz
STARTING ROTATION:
Tommy Hanson, Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens, Derek Lowe, Kenshin Kawakami
BULLPEN:
Forgive me while I ignore the bullpen, knowing a lot of it will be comprised of players that are not currently on our roster, maybe not even in the organization. Kris Medlen, Peter Moylan and Eric O’Flaherty seem to be locks from the current roster, while Manny Acosta, Craig Kimbrel and Vladimir Nunez look like options from the minor league system.
WHY THIS WAY? WHAT COULD SCREW IT UP?
As of now, I think a platoon of Ryan Church and Matt Diaz could out produce any corner outfielder on the market that stands to make more than $15 million (Jason Bay, Matt Holliday) without giving anything back defensively. One reason I like the platoon in LF is that it would be easier to go away from and put on the bench if Jordan Schafer’s stay at Triple-A proves that he is ready to come back to the major leagues.
Another benefit of configuring the roster this way to open the year is that it will give us a competitive roster, while also leading us up to the trade deadline with money to add an impact player instead of having to pinch pennies to improve our team. It will also pay dividends later when some of our younger players reach arbitration status to not have anyone locked into a lengthy contract.
Some of the players mentioned in the starting lineup and on the bench are also candidates to be traded. If that were the case, it may cause more of a reliance on those in the minor leagues (Jordan Schafer) or lead to the signing of another player (DeRosa and Jackson can play both 1B and LF).
